9th Scientific Statement. Recent Irish weather extremes and climate change from RIA
In November 2009 Ireland experienced
unusually wet weather that
caused widespread flooding. It was
followed by a cold spell from mid-December
that culminated in exceptionally
wintry conditions in the early days of
2010. Both events have led to speculation
that this is a manifestation of manmade
climate change, a foretaste of
what is to come. Is there any substance
to this view or are the events explainable
in terms of natural, as opposed to anthropogenic
(human-induced), variability
of the Irish climate?
Climate models suggest that extreme
rainfall events, such as occurred in late
2009, are likely to become more frequent
in the future, with additional
changes in the average rainfall. These
changes will be projected on the natural
variability of the climate system, a fundamental
feature that can produce large
departures from the average. It is not
possible to attribute any specific weather
events to either of these components.
The November 2009 rainfall was likely
to be part of natural variability, supplemented
with a small expected increase
in rainfall due to anthropogenic climate
change.
Similarly, the 2009/2010 winter cold
spell was consistent with the natural climate
variability displayed in the climate
records.
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